Trade Wars and 2011-2012 Crime Trends

The Carnegie Endownment published an interview with Michael Peltis about the future of China and the 2011-2012 global economic future.  I have a tendancy to agree with him that China will go through some tough changes in the late 2011 and 2012.  Since they are a huge part of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and global growth at this point, it will have some interesting knock on effects.

For the most part he says that 2011 will continue as is.  However, 2012 will have China starting to slow dramatically, in growth.  I feel that this will have a dramatic affect as the rest of the world is still recovering from the recession and it will be a good 7+ years for them to get out of it. 

If China slows, I would expect commodety prices to drop since they are consuming the vast majority of them.  This should slow down the U.S. theft of copper and other metals in homes, etc.  It was reported that the increase in copper thefts from houses and other facilities started when copper hit $2.5.  I would expect that this to come back and drop the crime wave that has occured.

On the other hand we should see a dramatic increase in localized e-crime.  As we saw in the U.S., the recessions drives a significantly higher corruption index.  Less jobs + high costs = lower moral standards = thefts.  With e-crime already being a significant problem in Asia I can see it increasing once the bubble pops if it were.

In the end, let's enjoy the 2011 year as 2012 looks to have a dramatic increase in e-crime for consumers and corporations due to the revisitation of global economic growth stagnation.  Since this stagnation is predicted to last 5+ years from that point (2012-2017) we have some work ahead of ourselves.